Leveraging Contact Network Information in Clustered Randomized Studies of Contagion Processes.

In a randomized study, leveraging covariates related to the outcome (e.g. disease status) may produce less variable estimates of the effect of exposure. For contagion processes operating on a contact network, transmission can only occur through ties that connect affected and unaffected individuals; the outcome of such a process is known to depend intimately on the structure of the network. In this paper, we investigate the use of contact network features as efficiency covariates in exposure effect estimation. Using augmented generalized estimating equations (GEE), we estimate how gains in efficiency depend on the network structure and spread of the contagious agent or behavior. We apply this approach to simulated randomized trials using a stochastic compartmental contagion model on a collection of model-based contact networks and compare the bias, power, and variance of the estimated exposure effects using an assortment of network covariate adjustment strategies. We also demonstrate the use of network-augmented GEEs on a clustered randomized trial evaluating the effects of wastewater monitoring on COVID-19 cases in residential buildings at the the University of California San Diego.

Neutrophil Activation and Immune Thrombosis Profiles Persist in Convalescent COVID-19.

PURPOSE: Following a severe COVID-19 infection, a proportion of individuals develop prolonged symptoms. We investigated the immunological dysfunction that underlies the persistence of symptoms months after the resolution of acute COVID-19. METHODS: We analyzed cytokines, cell phenotypes, SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific and neutralizing antibodies, and whole blood gene expression profiles in convalescent severe COVID-19 patients 1, 3, and 6 months following hospital discharge. RESULTS: We observed persistent abnormalities until month 6 marked by (i) high serum levels of monocyte/macrophage and endothelial activation markers, chemotaxis, and hematopoietic cytokines; (ii) a high frequency of central memory CD4+ and effector CD8+ T cells; (iii) a decrease in anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike and neutralizing antibodies; and (iv) an upregulation of genes related to platelet, neutrophil activation, erythrocytes, myeloid cell differentiation, and RUNX1 signaling. We identified a "core gene signature" associated with a history of thrombotic events, with upregulation of a set of genes involved in neutrophil activation, platelet, hematopoiesis, and blood coagulation. CONCLUSION: The lack of restoration of gene expression to a normal profile after up to 6 months of follow-up, even in asymptomatic patients who experienced severe COVID-19, signals the need to carefully extend their clinical follow-up and propose preventive measures.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels. FINDINGS: Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm and 8/9 pm reduced R by 34.3% (27.9-40.2) and 18.9% (12.04-25.3), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 42.2% (37.3-47.3) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions. INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of weather while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.

Using a population-based Kalman estimator to model the COVID-19 epidemic in France: estimating associations between disease transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments have adopted a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These include stringent measures such as strict lockdowns, closing schools, bars and restaurants, curfews, and barrier gestures such as mask-wearing and social distancing. Deciphering the effectiveness of each NPI is critical to responding to future waves and outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a dynamic model of the French COVID-19 epidemics over a one-year period. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of infection that includes a dynamic transmission rate over time. Multilevel data across French regions are integrated using random effects on the parameters of the mechanistic model, boosting statistical power by multiplying integrated observation series. We estimate the parameters using a new population-based statistical approach based on a Kalman filter, used for the first time in analysing real-world data. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model that depends on the NPIs while accounting for vaccination coverage, the occurrence of variants of concern (VoC), and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPIs considered have an independent significant association with transmission rates. In addition, we show a strong association between weather conditions that reduces transmission in summer, and we also estimate increased transmissibility of VoC.

Modelling the response to vaccine in non-human primates to define SARS-CoV-2 mechanistic correlates of protection.

The definition of correlates of protection is critical for the development of next-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccine platforms. Here, we propose a model-based approach for identifying mechanistic correlates of protection based on mathematical modelling of viral dynamics and data mining of immunological markers. The application to three different studies in non-human primates evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines based on CD40-targeting, two-component spike nanoparticle and mRNA 1273 identifies and quantifies two main mechanisms that are a decrease of rate of cell infection and an increase in clearance of infected cells. Inhibition of RBD binding to ACE2 appears to be a robust mechanistic correlate of protection across the three vaccine platforms although not capturing the whole biological vaccine effect. The model shows that RBD/ACE2 binding inhibition represents a strong mechanism of protection which required significant reduction in blocking potency to effectively compromise the control of viral replication.

Design, immunogenicity, and efficacy of a pan-sarbecovirus dendritic-cell targeting vaccine.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need of a new generation of vaccine that are able to enhance protection against SARS-CoV-2 and related variants of concern (VOC) and emerging coronaviruses. METHODS: We identified conserved T- and B-cell epitopes from Spike (S) and Nucleocapsid (N) highly homologous to 38 sarbecoviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 VOCs, to design a protein subunit vaccine targeting antigens to Dendritic Cells (DC) via CD40 surface receptor (CD40.CoV2). FINDINGS: CD40.CoV2 immunization elicited high levels of cross-neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, VOCs, and SARS-CoV-1 in K18-hACE2 transgenic mice, associated with viral control and survival after SARS-CoV-2 challenge. A direct comparison of CD40.CoV2 with the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine showed that the two vaccines were equally immunogenic in mice. We demonstrated the potency of CD40.CoV2 to recall in vitro human multi-epitope, functional, and cytotoxic SARS-CoV-2 S- and N-specific T-cell responses that are unaffected by VOC mutations and cross-reactive with SARS-CoV-1 and, to a lesser extent, MERS epitopes. INTERPRETATION: We report the immunogenicity and antiviral efficacy of the CD40.CoV2 vaccine in a preclinical model providing a framework for a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine. FUNDINGS: This work was supported by INSERM and the Investissements d'Avenir program, Vaccine Research Institute (VRI), managed by the ANR and the CARE project funded from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking (JU).

Barrier Gesture Relaxation during Vaccination Campaign in France: Modelling Impact of Waning Immunity

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented intermittently for more than a year in most countries of the world to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. In France, while the vaccination campaign is progressing, the French government has decided to remove many public health restrictions such as business closure, lockdowns, and curfews. Nonetheless, social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing (also called barrier gestures) are still recommended. We utilize an age-structured compartmental SEIR model that takes into account the SARS-CoV-2 waning immunity, vaccination, and increased transmissibility from variants of concern to estimate if barrier gestures can be relaxed without causing a resurgence of severe infections. This model assumes that the susceptibility to infection is a function of immunity status, which depends on initial infection severity and vaccination status. It is calibrated on confirmed COVID-19 cases from the French surveillance database, and accounts for changes in contact behaviors due to the implementation of nation-wide public health policies. We study the partial and full relaxation of barrier gestures occurring from August to December 2021 under various immunity duration assumptions. Maintaining the application of barrier gestures appears essential to avoid a resurgence of severe infections that would exceed French health care capacities, while surmounting vaccine hesitancy represents the key to consider their relaxation. Immunity duration assumptions significantly influence the short-term dynamic of the epidemic, which should be considered for further modelling.

Targeting SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain to cells expressing CD40 improves protection to infection in convalescent macaques.

Achieving sufficient worldwide vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 will require additional approaches to currently approved viral vector and mRNA vaccines. Subunit vaccines may have distinct advantages when immunizing vulnerable individuals, children and pregnant women. Here, we present a new generation of subunit vaccines targeting viral antigens to CD40-expressing antigen-presenting cells. We demonstrate that targeting the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to CD40 (αCD40.RBD) induces significant levels of specific T and B cells, with long-term memory phenotypes, in a humanized mouse model. Additionally, we demonstrate that a single dose of the αCD40.RBD vaccine, injected without adjuvant, is sufficient to boost a rapid increase in neutralizing antibodies in convalescent non-human primates (NHPs) exposed six months previously to SARS-CoV-2. Vaccine-elicited antibodies cross-neutralize different SARS-CoV-2 variants, including D614G, B1.1.7 and to a lesser extent B1.351. Such vaccination significantly improves protection against a new high-dose virulent challenge versus that in non-vaccinated convalescent animals.